Swiss financial institution reduces the estimate to 1.5% growth in the country in 2012 and revolt Brazilian authorities
A team of economists at Credit
Suisse dropped 2% to just 1.5% projected growth for the Brazilian economy in
2012. In the report justifying the most pessimistic expectations,
economists emphasize the drastic reduction in the pace of investment, which
would leave 4.7% in 2011 to 0.3% in 2012 and deceleration of household
consumption from 4.1% to 3 3%.
The
projections of the swiss financial institution, one of the largest investment
banks in the world, revolted brazilian authorities. In rio to attend the
rio +20, the finance minister, guido mantega, dismissed the calculation.
"It's a joke. It will be much more than
that," Mantega said on the afternoon of Wednesday, 20, in brief statement
to reporters outside a hotel in Barra, where she is staying
delegation. Last month, in Senate hearing, he presented a new estimate of
the Ministry for the performance this year: 4%, half a percentage point below
the previous one.
In less favorable trends for the economy from the
perspective of demand, Credit Suisse also listed components decreases in
supply. "From the perspective of supply, our forecast assumes
retraction of agricultural products 1.8% and slight expansion of the industrial
GDP of 0.6%. The growth of services would be 2% higher than GDP, due to the
further expansion of its least sensitive to demand, "says the report.
The Minister of Development, Industry and Foreign
Trade, Fernando Pimentel, which also includes the presidential motorcade on Rio
+20, tried to temporize, "I think the view that the Europeans have to be
necessarily negative is influenced by the climate there.'s Situation financial
market in Europe is very bad, "he said.
For him, the Brazilians have reason to be optimistic
considering the dynamism of the economy of the country Pimentel praised the
measures taken by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to boost
economic growth in 2012 and said they were unlocking the investment for the
second half . "I do not follow this pessimism at Credit Suisse. I
think we'll outgrow it," he said. But preferred not to risk any
prognosis.
The financial market is not as optimistic as the
government. On Monday, the Central Bank released the report Focus, in
which banks reduced for the sixth consecutive week, the bet of economic growth
for 2012. According to the survey, the estimates dropped from 2.53% to
2.30%. Four weeks ago, was projected growth of 3.09% this year.
Today's report from Credit Suisse pulled further down
the trend. According to the document, simulations by the institution
"suggests that GDP growth of 2% in 2012 has become less likely because it
would require a very significant resumption of activity in the second half of
2012."
"The reduction in our forecast for GDP growth in
the second quarter, the overall uncertainty still high and the low probability
that we attach to a very significant economic expansion in coming quarters
justify a reduction in our forecast for GDP growth in 2012 from 2% to 1.5%
", say the economists.
Source: Economia&Negocios
Source: Economia&Negocios
No comments:
Post a Comment